What’s Behind Texas’ Latino Shift Towards Trump

This general election, a historic number of Latinos voted for former President Donald Trump and Republican candidates in general, despite previously showing an overwhelming support for President Joe Biden in 2020. 

Specifically in Texas, Republicans made significant gains in Latino communities. In 2020, Biden won half of the 22 South Texas counties, however, this year Vice President Kamala Harris won just four of those counties, and a total of 12 across the state.

This change could be explained by several factors, but some have said that the economy is one of the most important to them.

“What people don’t understand is my hairdresser, my nail salon, my cleaners, they all voted for Trump because they’re small businesses and they’re taking a hit (economically),” Tessie Kempenski, a Latino voter from Houston, told the Houston Chronicle. “(Democrats) take us for granted and assume we’re going to agree with them on everything.”

According to exit polls by the Washington Post, 55% of Latino voters in Texas –a third of the state’s electorate– voted for Trump this election, a 14-point increase from the 41% who voted for him in 2020.

Latino leaders expressed Harris didn’t have a strong message like Trump in this election did with the economy or immigration.

“(Republicans) pounded those issues from the get-go,” Sergio Lira, a Democrat and president of the Greater Houston LULAC Council told the Chronicle. “That has been a consistent message for nine years and it didn’t waver or change, whereas Kamala Harris’ message was not as consistent or strong as Trump’s messaging.” 

Trump promised voters to cut down prices from day one, even if he can’t control that and also made voters believe that crime was correlated with crime and that he could fix that, even when he can’t.

“That’s a clear message, and that’s where the people are,” Cortina said. “It’s not about how Wall Street is doing, it’s about going to the grocery store and being able to afford the cereal your kids like.”

Republican’s gains on Latino voters are further highlighted for their win in Starr county, which has not voted for a Republican since 1982.

Richard Vara, a retired Harris County Justice of the Peace, and a Democrat, told the Chronicle that machista culture among Latino could have explained Harris’ defeat.

“What I feel happened was a lot of men saying, ‘I can’t believe a woman can do this job and he can do better,’” Vara said.

However, machista culture among latinos is not enough to explain Trump’s appeal to them. Cortina noted that recently Mexico overwhelmingly elected its first president Claudia Sheinbaum by a difference of more than 30 percentage points.

Democratic State Rep. Armando Walle said that Democrats have a “fundamental messaging problem” that they must fix if they want ro regain the Latino votes.

“I don’t care what candidate it is, if you’re not talking about the literal kitchen-table issues, I think you’re at a disadvantage,” he said. “Particularly when running against the populist campaign that President Trump ran on, which obviously resonated with certain folks.”