Texas School Voucher Plan Faces Uncertain Future as Costs Could Soar to $4.6 Billion

“Senate Bill 2 is entirely subject to a future appropriations process and the Legislature making a decision to grow the population of students served,” said Sen. Brandon Creighton during a committee hearing, according to the San Antonio Express News. Although Creighton’s bill sets the program’s initial investment at $1 billion, there are other pathways to expand it even without direct legislative approval.

Projections from the nonpartisan Legislative Budget Board suggest demand could quickly exceed that amount, potentially diverting billions from public schools as costs rise to $4.6 billion by 2030.

Gov. Greg Abbott, a strong advocate for school vouchers, has previously bypassed the Legislature to expand funding for major initiatives, such as Operation Lone Star. Initially approved for under $3 billion, the border security program grew by billions more through funding shifts between state agencies, authorized by a small group of lawmakers. Critics warn he could use the same approach to expand the voucher program without full legislative oversight.

The $1 billion investment would create between 60,000 and 100,000 voucher slots, but only about 35,000 private school seats are expected to be available in the first year. This means the majority of slots could go to students already in private or home schools, rather than those transferring from public schools.

Rep. Janis Holt supports the House voucher proposal, recognizing its potential to make private education more accessible for families who otherwise couldn’t afford it. However, she is also concerned about the long-term financial risks, acknowledging that once government assistance is introduced, people come to rely on it. Holt campaigned on vouchers as a way to give parents and students more control over their education choices but agrees that demand could quickly exceed the $1 billion budgeted for the program.

Holt also warns that the state’s ability to sustain vouchers depends on economic conditions. While lawmakers currently have control over funding, she questions how the program would fare if the state faced a financial downturn. If a budget deficit arises, future legislatures may have to decide whether to scale back or eliminate the program, as has happened with other government initiatives in the past.

The future of the voucher program remains uncertain, as its financial sustainability hinges on both legislative decisions and economic conditions. While proponents argue it expands educational access and empowers families, critics warn of the long-term impact on public schools and the potential for unchecked growth beyond its initial budget. Whether lawmakers choose to expand or scale back the program in the coming years will depend not only on political priorities but also on the state’s ability to fund it without jeopardizing other essential services.